Published Via ORSAM on November 01, 2020
Recently, northwestern Syria has experienced significant changes in the control and influence of various territories. These changes often correlate with shifts in the political and international landscape concerning Syria. The analysis presented here does not provide a specific timeline of these changes; instead, it focuses on the current situation in the Idlib and Aleppo provinces, detailing how control is distributed among the key international and local actors. These actors include Turkey, Russia, Iran, the US, Turkish-backed opposition forces (SNA and NLF), Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), regime forces, and the YPG/Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
The report primarily addresses areas of control and influence within the opposition-held regions in the Idlib and Aleppo governorates. It includes maps that identify the controlling parties over significant residential communities, key roads, and crossings in these two governorates. The report also delves into the international roles and influences within these governorates, particularly focusing on the factional dynamics in Aleppo and Idlib. It further discusses the actual power of HTS and its evolution, along with the administrative reality in Idlib and the role of the Salvation Government in managing the Idlib governorate.
This report is the first in a series that will explore the military, security, and economic conditions in the Syrian governorates. By the end of 2019, the Syrian regime, supported by local and foreign militias loyal to Iran and with Russian air support, launched several operations to seize these areas. However, military escalation was paused in early March 2020 following a Russian-Turkish agreement. This agreement included a ceasefire and the establishment of a joint patrol along the M4 road to create a safe corridor. As a result, a new reality of control was established, which is detailed in the subsequent maps and tables provided in the report.
The explanations of the abbreviations used in the report are as follows:
The Syrian National Army (SNA): The umbrella organization for armed opposition forces in the regions of Operation Euphrates Shield, Operation Olive Branch, and Operation Peace Spring.
The National Liberation Front (NLF): The umbrella organization for armed opposition forces in Idlib.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): The umbrella organization primarily formed by the YPG/PKK.
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
In October 2019, the armed groups from the regions of Operation Euphrates Shield, Operation Olive Branch, and Operation Peace Spring (SNA) merged with the armed opponents in Idlib (NLF) under the designation of the National Army (Jays al-Watani) and were integrated into the Syrian Interim Government's Ministry of Defence. However, for clarity, this study differentiates between the armed groups in the operation zones and those in Idlib by presenting the SNA and the NLF as two distinct entities.
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