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Detailed breakdown reflecting the correct calculations and expanded context on international influence in Al-Raqqa, Al-Hasakah, and Deir Ezzor provinces in Northeast Syria as of May 2024:
Al-Raqqa Province: spans 19,168 square kilometers and demonstrates diverse control:
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) manage /9,730/ square kilometers, roughly 50.7% of the province. The SDF's control here is supported by international coalitions, primarily the United States, which has provided military support and training to bolster their operations against ISIS.
Regime Forces and Allied Militias control /2,158/ square kilometers, about 11.3% of the province, with remaining areas likely under SDF influence or contested.
Syrian National Army (SNA) holds /1,900/ square kilometers, approximately 9.9%. The SNA is backed by Turkey, highlighting Ankara's strategic interest in countering Kurdish influence near its borders.
Joint Control by the SDF and Regime Forces covers /2,158/ square kilometers, indicating cooperation or unresolved conflict zones, involving around 11.3% of the province, the Russian gain access to these areas post 2018, after Trump made the decision to mobilize most of the U.S. forces to Hasaka province.
Al-Hasakah Province, encompassing 23,334 square kilometers, reflects significant international involvement:
SDF controls /19,828/ square kilometers, or about 85%. Their dominance is heavily influenced by U.S. support, providing them with a strategic foothold in the region.
Regime Forces oversee /505/ square kilometers, just over 2.2%. This area, though small, signifies the Syrian Regime's persistent presence.
SNA has control over /1,840/ square kilometers, around 7.9%, supported by Turkish interests.
Joint SDF and Regime Control is observed over /161/ square kilometers, about 0.7%, showcasing areas of tactical standoffs or agreements.
Deir Ezzor Province, the largest, covering 33,060 square kilometers, is crucial due to its oil resources:
SDF commands /17,191/ square kilometers, about 52%, with considerable backing from the U.S., focusing on securing oil fields and countering ISIS remnants.
Regime Forces, influenced predominantly by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other Iranian-backed militias like the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) and the Local Defense Forces (LDF), control /15,869/ square kilometers, roughly 48%. This area highlights the significant Iranian influence, aiming to secure a land corridor to Lebanon and maintain access to Syrian oil resources.
This detailed examination reveals the complex overlay of local conflicts and international geopolitical strategies, underlining the significance of Northeast Syria in broader regional and international contests over strategic territories and resources. Each group's territorial hold reflects not just local but also international military and political objectives, impacting the ongoing dynamics in the Syrian conflict.
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