Self-Published July 20, 2024
For many years, numerous reports have highlighted Iran's attempts to exploit tribal affiliations against the United States, aiming to push it to withdraw from its positions in northern and eastern Syria. This approach is not new for Iran, which manages its operations in the region by recruiting, training, and influencing local groups, taking advantage of the dire local conditions. This behavior is part of a broader Iranian foreign policy agenda aimed at expelling the United States from the Middle East. The ultimate goal is to create an environment that allows Tehran to pursue its regional ambitions unimpeded, knowing that the United States continues to closely monitor these efforts.
At times, Iranian moves to attract tribes to its alliance have been quite apparent, yet many details remain vague and unclear. It has become difficult to ascertain the true nature and effectiveness of Iran's role in any tribal movements beyond its usual tribal allies, such as the Bakara tribe, for example. Media outlets and even official entities have exploited the lack of detail to craft narratives that align with their own objectives.
In 2023, Iran embarked on a project to recruit fighters from local tribes, frequently promoting, in conjunction with Syrian regime media outlets, the concept of "tribal resistance to American occupation in northern and eastern Syria," attempting to some extent to replicate its experience in Iraq. This strategy demonstrates Tehran's ongoing efforts to expand its influence in the region by fostering local allies who share a common narrative of resistance against foreign presence.
Complex Dynamics: Iran's Interaction with Arab Tribes Post-ISIS
After the battles against ISIS in Deir Ezzor concluded, Iran attempted to open communication channels and engage with Arab tribes in eastern Syria, aiming to counter American influence by highlighting the repeated violations these tribes faced from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). It's worth noting that Iranian agents have been present in the Deir Ezzor region since 2017, overtly in areas controlled by the regime and covertly in areas managed by the SDF. Naturally, relationships with influential figures there have formed. However, these relationships do not necessarily prove direct Iranian influence or that they are the primary reason behind any tribal movements against the SDF. In its various endeavors in the region, Iran has relied on proxies to expand its influence, such as the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran has used its proxies in Iraq against American forces or their partners in the region. With Iran strengthening its influence in eastern Syria, it has applied the same strategy there, expanding its power in the region by taking advantage of the Syrian regime's weak control in Deir Ezzor and Russia's lack of interest in the eastern region at that time. Nevertheless, the true nature of Iran's impact on tribal dynamics is complex and often exaggerated by external observers.
Strategic Tribal Engagements and Misinterpretations
Iran's primary goal is to recruit and use the extensive tribal presence in Deir Ezzor as tools against U.S. forces and their allies by exploiting dissatisfaction with the SDF and gaps in effective U.S. engagement with tribal issues. It is essential for the U.S. forces to recognize the mistake of neglecting the demands of Arab tribes, as this oversight will likely exacerbate the SDF's breaches against the Arab tribes, thereby enhancing Iran's opportunities to influence these tribes in one way or another, increasing Iran's influence over strategic tribal areas within SDF-controlled areas, and complicating American efforts to stabilize the area through the SDF, potentially creating divisions between the local populations and U.S.-supported forces. As these dynamics evolve, the potential for Iran to reshape its influence in Deir Ezzor remains significant, marking a critical juncture in the geopolitical struggle for Syria's future.
The issues of local rights, which deteriorated due to the actions of the SDF against the tribes in the Dhiban area of Deir Ezzor in late 2023, led to the formation of an armed tribal uprising against the SDF led by Sheikh Ibrahim Al-Hafil of the Al-Akidat tribe, as the battles escalated, Al-Hafil was forced to retreat to regime-controlled areas where Liwa Al-Baqir, aligned with Iran, assisted in securing escape routes. Using the role that Liwa al-Baqir played as evidence of Iran's control over the tribal uprising is illogical, given that Liwa Al-Baqir, which controls smuggling points between SDF and regime areas, was the only option available to Al-Hafil and his fighters. Moreover, the involvement of Liwa al-Baqir, which is part of the Bakara tribe, was not based on Iranian orders but was driven by a unity of situation among the tribes in the area, which mostly suffered from SDF violations.
In summary, the events of September 2023, involving fighting between Arab tribes and the SDF in Deir Ezzor, cannot be directly linked to Iran. The actions of Iran's local proxies at that time represent an exceptional and opportunistic intervention in a specific circumstance, not reflecting direct control or guidance. The characteristics of Iran's attempts at intervention in September 2023 suggest that while Iran capitalizes on tribal disputes to advance its interests, it is not the primary catalyst of these conflicts. Instead, Iran seeks to use the tribes' legitimate causes as instruments in its broader strategy to diminish U.S. presence and enhance its own influence in the Middle East. This tactic highlights Iran's role in facilitating, rather than directly initiating, local resistance to U.S. and SDF forces, demonstrating the emerge of a new level of Iranian regional influence that extends beyond direct military engagement. [1]
The Emergence of Saraya Al-Boushaban: New Tribal Dynamics in Deir Ezzor
In May 2024, the Deir Ezzor region in Syria experienced significant events influenced by historical grievances and evolving geopolitical dynamics. A crucial meeting organized by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Eastern Syria brought together their commander, Mazloum Abdi, with leaders from the Al-Akidat and Al-Bakara tribes. During this meeting, Abdi emphasized the essential role of the tribes as primary guarantors of regional security against various threats. This meeting aimed to be a pivotal moment, possibly the first step towards improving the strained relations between the SDF and the tribal factions, which had been tense since September 2023.
However, following the SDF meeting, pro-regime local media announced the formation of a new military tribal-affiliated faction named Saraya Al-Boushaban, whose main objective is to fight the SDF forces, notably backed by the United States. The formation of Saraya Al-Boushaban followed a strategic meeting in Deir Ezzor within regime-held areas, overseen by Captain Ahmad Abdul Karim Al-Muhaimid, the head of the tribal operations office under the Syrian regime. This meeting included key tribal figures such as Ibrahim al-Hafil, sheikh of the Al-Akidat tribe, Sheikh Alaa Al-Labad from the Al-Boushaban tribe, and Subhi Al-Hanan, a prominent member of the Al-Bakara tribe. The involvement of tribal figures closely aligned with Iran, such as Subhi Al-Hanan, indicates Iran’s intention to invest in this newly formed faction, similar to its previous support of various tribal armed formations since 2017.
However, it is crucial to note that Iran’s efforts to gain tribal support have faced resistance. For example, when Abdullah Al-Shalash from the Al-Busaraya tribe proposed forming a military faction funded by Iran to tribal sheikh Muhanad Al-Fayyad, it was decisively rejected. [2] This incident highlights the complexities and obstacles Iran encounters in influencing tribal groups in the area. Despite this, the persistent violations by the SDF against civilians, combined with the apparent neglect of U.S. forces to address tribal leaders’ grievances, have provided Iran and its affiliates with renewed opportunities to influence these tribal leaders. Iran aims to use legitimate tribal grievances as a soft power tool to further its strategic interests in northern and northeastern Syria. This approach is part of a wider Iranian strategy to deeply integrate itself into the local socio-political fabric, using these tribal grievances to challenge U.S. influence in Eastern Syria. The network graph below provides an overview of the most known and active tribal armed groups and their main connections in the region:
Animation Direct Link: https://www.navvar-saban.com/eastern-tribes-vs-iranian-influence-en
Conclusion: Navigating Influence and Autonomy in Eastern Syria
In eastern Syria, Iran is strategically engaging with local tribes to extend its geopolitical influence. It aims to leverage the longstanding grievances these tribes hold against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the U.S. presence. The appearance of groups like Saraya Al-Boushaban shows Iran's use of tribal dissatisfaction to further its goals, highlighting the tribes' strong desire for autonomy and rights.
Apart from the Al-Bakara tribe, most tribal communities in the region have not fully aligned with Iran's regional ambitions, even though some ties with Iran or its local agents exist. Ongoing mistreatment of civilians by the SDF and the U.S. forces' lack of response to tribal leaders' requests have provided Iran and its partners new chances to influence these leaders. Iran aims to use these genuine tribal complaints as a strategic tool to strengthen its position in northern and northeastern Syria. This tactic is crucial for Iran's broader strategy to blend into the local socio-political scene and challenge U.S. influence in the region.
This situation shows Iran's goal to reduce U.S. influence and integrate itself into the local social and political framework. However, the resistance to Iranian efforts, like the rejection of an Iran-backed military group, shows the limits of Iran's influence and the complex nature of tribal loyalties in Syria.
Reference
[1] The Author conducts an interview via Zoom with an expert in Deir Ezzor tribes and was present during the September 2023 clashes between the tribes and the SDF.
[2] Reference 1
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