Published 22 October ,2024
Introduction
Since October 7, 2023, the Middle East has been witnessing military operations in various areas, beginning in Gaza and spreading to Lebanon and elsewhere. By August 2024, military activities had escalated between Israel, on one side, and Hezbollah, Iran, and Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Lebanon on the other. Israel has intensified its operations as part of its broader strategy to counter threats from these groups. These strikes were not isolated incidents but are intrinsically linked to Israel’s ongoing military operations in Lebanon.
This paper explores the potential effects of these Israeli strikes on the influence of Hezbollah and Iran in Syria, identifies Israel’s current goals, analyzes the strikes carried out from August 2024 until mid-October 2024 and anticipates possible future scenarios based on the extent to which these goals have been achieved.
Israeli Escalation Against Hezbollah and Iran in Syria
Hezbollah and Iran are exploiting regime-controlled areas in Syria for strategic purposes, such as using them as weapons transport and storage routes and establishing bases for military operations. These regions serve as optimal locations for setting up operation centers that include various commanders from the Revolutionary Guards and Lebanese Hezbollah.
2.1 Weapons Production and Storage Facilities
Iran and Hezbollah aim to leverage the Syrian regime’s research facilities to produce and store weapons, which are targeted by Israel. A recent example is the Israeli attack on Masyaf, on September 8-9, 2024, which hosts significant facilities for military research and development. The attack targeted sites allegedly used to produce ballistic missiles and drones (UAVs) intended for Hezbollah.[1]
The execution of the Israeli strike, which was coupled with an airdrop, underscores the strategic importance of this facility. It is uncommon for Israel to conduct landings deep within Syrian territory, indicating a high level of planning. Additionally, Israel’s seizure of vital documents and equipment suggests an advanced intelligence operation aimed at undermining Iran’s military infrastructure in Syria. By obtaining this information, Israel can better understand Iran and Hezbollah’s capabilities and plans, identify more potential targets, and disrupt military development programs.[2] This aligns with Israel’s objective of hindering Hezbollah’s acquisition of advanced weapons that could alter the regional balance of power.
2.2 Smuggling Routes and Logistics Centers
The attacks on border crossings between Syria and Lebanon on September 27-28, 2024, highlight Israel’s efforts to disrupt the logistical networks of Hezbollah and Iran. The smuggling routes extend from Wadi Khaled near Tal Kalakh in Homs Governorate, pass through Al-Qusayr, and reach the western Qalamoun in Damascus Countryside Governorate.[3] These crossings are crucial for transferring weapons and equipment to Hezbollah, including advanced weapon systems and technological devices. By disrupting these routes, Israel aims to weaken Hezbollah’s operational capabilities over time, reduce the flow of weapons, and impair Hezbollah’s ability to rearm and equip its forces. The involvement of Syrian regime army members in these operations indicates complicity or direct assistance in Hezbollah’s smuggling activities.[4]
2.3 Enhancement of Military Infrastructure
Hezbollah’s efforts to bolster its military presence in southern Syria have been met with numerous Israeli strikes. On September 12, 2024, Israel eliminated Ahmed al-Jaber, a key member of Hezbollah’s “Golan File” unit, signaling Israel’s intent to prevent the opening of a new front on its northeastern border. The Golan File unit aims to exploit the security vacuum in the region to establish bases and facilities for launching attacks against Israel.[5] By removing al-Jaber, Israel disrupted Hezbollah’s strategic plans and sent a deterrent message to other factions contemplating similar actions. This demonstrates Israel’s readiness to take decisive measures to avert new security threats, even if it requires specific ground operations.
Furthermore, the attack on a villa in Yafour (near Damascus) on September 29-30, 2024, used by senior Hezbollah and IRGC officials for meetings and strategic planning, underscores Israel’s focus on targeting high-value sites. Israel’s accurate intelligence on the movements and activities of Hezbollah and IRGC leaders, as well as their associates, increases psychological pressure, diminishes their sense of security, restricts their movements, and disrupts their communication channels.[6]
Analysis of Israeli Strikes in Syria from August 2024 to Mid-October 2024
During this period, Israel conducted several strikes across various regions of Syria. These operations demonstrate a significant escalation in disrupting smuggling networks, destroying military infrastructure, and undermining the influence of Iran and Hezbollah in the region.[7]
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