Special Brief, July 01, 2024
This report covers the military and security developments involving Iran and its allies in the region, focusing on key political movements by Iranian leadership from May 29 to June 30, 2024. This period was marked by increasing tensions and active engagements by Iranian officials and their allies throughout the Middle East, with significant emphasis on the conflict with Israel and interactions in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen. The report details the main events, actions, and statements from Iranian leadership and affiliated groups.
Discussions and Conferences Concerning the Conflict in Gaza Involving Israel
Public Statements by the Supreme Leader
In a letter dated May 30, 2024, Khamenei wrote to pro-Palestinian students in the United States, praising their support and framing their actions as part of a historical resistance against Zionist oppression.
On June 3, 2024, Ali Khamenei declared that Israel would not recover from Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023. He emphasized that the al-Aqsa Flood operation thwarted enemy plans to dominate the region and the Muslim world, highlighting the strategic victory for Hamas and the ongoing resistance against Israeli actions.
On June 15, 2024, Khamenei reiterated the need for continued resistance against Israel and condemned U.S. support for Israeli actions. He directed Iranian pilgrims during Hajj to chant slogans against Israel and the United States, reinforcing the anti-Israeli and anti-American sentiment as part of the "dissociation" ceremonies.
Actions of Acting Foreign Minister Bagheri-Kani
Following the death of Foreign Minister Abdollahian, Ali Bagheri-Kani assumed the diplomatic reins. From June 1-2, 2024, Bagheri-Kani engaged in extensive diplomatic outreach, including phone calls with foreign ministers globally, emphasizing the need for continued support for the Palestinian cause. In early June, Bagheri-Kani visited Syria and Lebanon, meeting with senior officials and leaders of Hezbollah, reinforcing Iran's unwavering support for Palestinian factions and resistance groups in the region.
On June 7, 2024, he participated in the D-8 foreign ministers' meeting in Istanbul, calling for united actions against Israel and urging Muslim countries to sever political and economic ties with Israel and support Gaza.
From June 10-12, 2024, his discussions with Qatari and Turkish officials focused on condemning Israeli actions and bolstering support for Gaza. In Doha, he met with Qatar’s prime minister and Hamas’ political bureau chief, emphasizing the expansion of resistance to legal, political, and diplomatic spheres. On June 12, 2024, Bagheri-Kani issued multiple warnings to Israel, cautioning against expanding the war and highlighting the consequences of continued aggression.
Military and Security Developments
Iranian Dominance Amidst the Ongoing Lack of State Sovereignty in Syria and Lebanon
Israel has intensified its airstrikes on Iranian military targets in Syria, including an operation that killed three key commanders of Iran’s Quds Force in Damascus. These strikes aim to disrupt Iranian efforts to establish a strong military foothold in Syria and limit weapons transfers to Hezbollah in Lebanon. In response, Iran has attempted to boost its air defense capabilities in Syria by deploying advanced systems such as the Khordad-15 and transferring other air defense equipment to its allies in the region
On May 30, 2024, Syrian President Bashar Assad visited Tehran to express condolences for the deaths of senior Iranian officials, further solidifying the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis. On June 3, 2024, an IRGC officer was killed in Aleppo in an attack attributed to Israel, marking the first Iranian officer killed in Syria since April 1, 2024.
During his visits to Lebanon on June 3-4, 2024, Bagheri-Kani met with Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and other senior figures, focusing on coordinating responses to Israeli actions and strengthening the resistance front.
On June 15, 2024, reports indicated that the IRGC was acquiring properties in Al-Bukamal, eastern Syria, to conceal drug smuggling operations, highlighting Iran’s involvement in illicit activities to fund its regional operations. Also in the same region and June 21, 2024, a drone strike, likely by Israeli forces, targeted a weapons truck for Hezbollah in Al-Bukamal, killing Abdullah Razzaq al-Safi from the Iraqi militia Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada. This strike underscores Israel's ongoing efforts to halt the flow of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah and the strategic importance of Al-Bukamal as a trafficking route.
On June 19 and June 24, 2024, Israel launched airstrikes on Syrian military positions in Daraa and Quneitra, killing a Syrian officer and damaging a complex linked to the Syrian Army's 112th Brigade, shared with Hezbollah. These airstrikes emphasize Israel's ongoing efforts to weaken Hezbollah's military capabilities near its borders. On June 27, 2024, an Israeli airstrike targeted a Jihad al-Binaa facility near Damascus, destroying equipment and infrastructure.
On June 29, 2024, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed in a televised speech to escalate operations against Israel in response to recent attacks in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah, Iran’s main proxy in Lebanon, has been involved in sporadic clashes with Israeli forces. Iran has been working to enhance Hezbollah’s air defense capabilities, although they still remain inferior to Israel’s advanced military technology. The transfer of air defense systems to Hezbollah is part of a broader Iranian strategy to create a regional “air defense axis” to complicate Israeli air operations across Lebanon and Syria, These activities reflect Iran’s broader strategy of using proxy forces and advanced weaponry to extend its influence in the region, despite facing significant military pushback from Israel and the United States. The situation remains highly volatile, with both sides demonstrating a willingness to escalate militarily.
Iranian Proxy Influence on the Iraqi Fronts through Control of the PMF
On May 31, 2024, reports indicated that Iraqi militia leaders met with senior IRGC and Qods Force officials to discuss escalating actions against Israel, including the use of more advanced weaponry.
From June 5-15, 2024, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for several drone attacks targeting Israeli cities, including Haifa and Eilat. These attacks represent a coordinated effort to escalate the conflict and demonstrate Iran’s ability to strike at strategic locations in Israel.
During June 2024, Iran conducted a series of drone and missile strikes targeting what it claimed were Israeli intelligence bases and terrorist groups in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. These strikes killed several civilians and were condemned by the Iraqi and Kurdish governments, escalating regional tensions. Additionally, Iran-backed militias have continued to target U.S. military installations in Iraq, leading to increased U.S. defensive measures and retaliatory strikes against these militia groups
On June 22, 2024, Iranian-backed militias launched two suicide drones at the U.S. military base in al-Tanf, both of which were intercepted. This attack signifies a coordinated response from Iran-backed groups to U.S. and Israeli operations, highlighting the threat posed by Iranian proxies to U.S. forces and the potential for escalation.
Yemeni Fronts: Ongoing Houthi Support for Iran's Strategic Objectives
From June 5-13, 2024, Houthi leaders, including Yahya Saria and Abd al-Malik al-Houthi, made several declarations about their ongoing operations and future plans, emphasizing the strategic importance of their attacks and the continued pressure on Israeli and U.S. interests.
In Yemen, Iranian support for the Houthi rebels remains a critical element of the ongoing conflict. The Houthis have launched several attacks using drones and missiles, some of which have been intercepted by U.S. forces in the Red Sea. These attacks are part of Iran's broader strategy to destabilize the region and challenge U.S. and allied forces' presence.
On June 10, 2024, the United States imposed sanctions on individuals and entities linked to Houthi smuggling operations, targeting networks involved in procuring weapons and financial resources for the Houthis. On June 22, 2024, the Houthis and Iraqi militias announced joint operations against Israeli targets, including ships in Haifa port, underscoring the unified front of pro-Iranian factions in the region.
From June 19-26, 2024, Houthi attacks on civilian and military vessels in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea continued to pose significant maritime security threats, prompting responses from international naval forces, including interceptions and counterstrikes.
Other Developments and Events
On June 19, 2024, Canada designated the IRGC as a terrorist organization, urging its citizens to leave Iran. On June 28, 2024, the United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting to address the escalating maritime security situation, resulting in a call for restraint from all parties involved.
On June 29, 2024, reports surfaced that Iran was bolstering its support for Houthi missile capabilities, aiming to enhance their strike range and precision. On June 30, 2024, the U.S. Navy announced the deployment of additional ships to the Arabian Sea to ensure the security of international shipping lanes.
Conclusion
The period from May 29 to June 30, 2024, witnessed intensified Iranian diplomatic efforts to highlight its (So-Called) supports to the Palestinian in Gaza, counter Israeli operations, and strengthen ties with regional allies. Iran's strategic movements, particularly in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, underscore its commitment to its regional proxies and the ongoing conflict with Israel. Iranian leaders continue to leverage both direct and proxy actions to advance their geopolitical interests and challenge Western and Israeli influence in the Middle East. The coordination between Iranian-backed militias and the sustained maritime threats highlight the complex and evolving security dynamics in the region.
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