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Writer's pictureNavvar Saban

Situation Report #5: Territorial Dynamics and Control in Northern Syria: Detailed Breakdown and Analysis - May 2024

Updated: May 4

Self-Published

The control dynamics within Aleppo and Idlib provinces reveal a complex tapestry of influence among various combatant groups in Northern Syria. Aleppo Province, which spans /19,482/ square kilometers, is divided among several factions.

  • The Syrian National Army (SNA) controls approximately 22% of the province, translating to /4,282/ square kilometers.

  • In contrast, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham along with other smaller factions hold a significantly smaller area, about /370/ square kilometers or roughly 2% of Aleppo.

  • The Syrian Regime forces maintain the largest territory, dominating around 52% of the province which amounts to /10,163/ square kilometers.

  • The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have control over /3,089/ square kilometers, representing about 16% of the province's area. Additionally, there are regions where joint control by the SDF and Regime forces is evident, covering /1,578/ square kilometers or approximately 8% of Aleppo.

 

Moving to Idlib Province, with a total area of /6,097/ square kilometers, the control is nearly evenly split between the Syrian Regime forces along with allied militias (Mainly Iranian-backed militias) and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other factions.

  • The Syrian Regime and allies militias holds about 51% of the territory, which is about /3,107/ square kilometers.

  • Meanwhile, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other factions control the remaining 49%, or /2,990/ square kilometers.

 

This distribution highlights the ongoing contestation and strategic maneuvering typical of the Syrian conflict, with each group maintaining substantial territories in a region critical to both political and military objectives in the ongoing Syrian conflict.

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